I knew it all along…
March 13, 2008
Hindsight bias occurs when we look back on past decisions and alter our perceptions of the circumstances and events. We often will say “I knew that was going to happen.” The phrase ‘Hindsight is 20/20′ is the common invocation describing this behavior.
Many people use hindsight bias to help resolve inconsistencies between something occurring today and the decision making process in the past. This quirk of reasoning can lead to a negative feedback loop. You may start out on some goal, run into a snag, and then berate yourself with “I should have seen this coming.” A few snags and then you convince yourself that you won’t be able to be successful at your endeavor.
The thing is – You will never be able to anticipate all things. You can’t predict the future. When you look back on a past activity, you have new perspective and data that you didn’t have earlier in time. So, of course you will have a different opinion on the situation. You have more information.
The best way to handle it? Treat is as a mental sunk costs. Realize that you have more information today, but don’t get hung up on the negatives. Take notes, don’t make the mistake again, and getting moving forward.
